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Bitcoin Surges Above $16K: Short-Term Rally or Actual Recovery?


Bitcoin (BTC) began the month’s trade on a negative note. However, the prices have since retreated as usual profit-taking set in, and the focus shifted to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent monetary policy meeting. 

It’s difficult to say in which direction Bitcoin’s price will go in with any sudden change.  

Some investors speculate that a BTC price spike and the subsequent settling of short interest in futures contracts may occur if the Federal Reserve were to abandon its current program of quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes.

Let’s explore.

FED Goes Back On Its hawkish stance

On a positive note, the Fed said in its statement that it had already raised rates significantly and could slow down the pace of the rate hikes. The US Dollar fell as markets applauded lower rates. Hence, a 50 bps hike is probable in December, not 75 bps like the last four times. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a period of the biggest correction, thus crypto strategists are advising BTC investors to prepare for a further sell-off.

What Next For BTC Price?

For his 545,700 Twitter followers, the pseudonymous analyst Kaleo issues a warning that a severe drop to $12,500 in Bitcoin is possible as it has broken through diagonal support on the one-hour chart.

“Focusing on this, the most likely scenario is a further decline before any sort of rebound. The inverse pennant has already broken below its uptrend support, and the next reliable support level is the retest of the trend breakout and support from the 2019-2020 highs of the base range.”

Trading View
  • The current price of Bitcoin is $16,172, thus a drop to Kaleo’s aim would be a loss of nearly 22%.
  • This will cause Bitcoin to continue declining. He also thinks that when the support comes in around $12,500, Bitcoin will unexpectedly bounce.
  • It makes logical sense, according to the chart, for there to be a V-bottom recovery from this breakdown and then a period of accumulation sideways into the spring of 2023.
  • Overall, Kaleo made it clear that Bitcoin will finally regain its bullish momentum and surge to as high as $40,000 after a period of sideways consolidation into the first quarter of 2023.

Bitcoin Pre-Halving Rally 

The breakthrough of the high time frame log downtrend, as depicted in the chart below, is where the analyst expects to see the most dramatic change in momentum. He predicts that, instead of leading to a new all-time high, it will cause a retracement to the $30,000–$40,000 region, followed by further volatility leading up to the next halving.

trading View

Hence, the scope of BTC is brighter when the Bitcoin halving occurs in March 2024, the reward for mining Bitcoin will be halved, resulting in a reduction in the total number of Bitcoins created each day. This might lead to some good results for long-term BTC holders. 

In conclusion, 

Kaleo suggests that he sees bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. 



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